I'm involved with a wholesale/retail fuel company nationally that is using 5% pa compound reductions in road fuels going forward (40/50% less demand in 10yrs) All investment decisions are based around this figure and I think it might be underestimating. The issue with any move to new technology is the transition as , for example , the current infrastructure becomes completely unviable (cost) way before you reach zero demand so whatever replaces, and there are options, will not have much time to replace fossil fuels smoothly. I'll be eating grass by then or pushing up daisies !!
I was talking more about driverless cars, rather than specifically electric ones, making the concept of owning a car seem a bit archaic... as by the 2030s you’ll most likely be able to call up a driverless car on an app... so essentially a ‘pod’ to travel in, rather than car.
As you say though, whether that pod is fully electric or a hybrid will depend on how fast the infrastructure is put in place. Yet, I still stand by my theory that I think technology will outpace the thinking... in that driverless call up pods will make the switch to fully electric easier, as most people won’t own their own vehicle and so these pods will based and charged at hubs & by the 2030s you’d think the batteries will be much better anyway.
So, I don’t think it’ll be a case of millions of people still waiting for charge terminals on their road etc. in 2031.