Petrol and diesel RIP

Moody

Well-known member
I'm involved with a wholesale/retail fuel company nationally that is using 5% pa compound reductions in road fuels going forward (40/50% less demand in 10yrs) All investment decisions are based around this figure and I think it might be underestimating. The issue with any move to new technology is the transition as , for example , the current infrastructure becomes completely unviable (cost) way before you reach zero demand so whatever replaces, and there are options, will not have much time to replace fossil fuels smoothly. I'll be eating grass by then or pushing up daisies !!

I was talking more about driverless cars, rather than specifically electric ones, making the concept of owning a car seem a bit archaic... as by the 2030s you’ll most likely be able to call up a driverless car on an app... so essentially a ‘pod’ to travel in, rather than car.

As you say though, whether that pod is fully electric or a hybrid will depend on how fast the infrastructure is put in place. Yet, I still stand by my theory that I think technology will outpace the thinking... in that driverless call up pods will make the switch to fully electric easier, as most people won’t own their own vehicle and so these pods will based and charged at hubs & by the 2030s you’d think the batteries will be much better anyway.

So, I don’t think it’ll be a case of millions of people still waiting for charge terminals on their road etc. in 2031.
 

kevrelles

Well-known member
Where's all the lithium coming from for these batteries? What about the environment damage mining It will cause? What happens when the life of the battery ends?

Where's all this electric power comming from? As It won't just be cars we'll have to charge, It will be homes we have to power as well. Hydrogen looks a viable solution, but again, how suitable and viable Is It on a mass scale In such a short space of time? We don't have enough sunshine for consistent solar power. Wind turbines are limited. We don't have the vast natural resources to build hydro power dams on the scale required.

How are we going to sustain the haulage Industry? Are will we Import and export goods? After all It will take a whopping battery and a lot of power to sustain an 18 wheeler.

Our public transport system Is just about fit for purpose and Is ridiculously expensive In relative terms as It Is. Who's going to pay for the major upgrades required? Are fares going to go down when the costs are will go drastically up?
HS2 Is the biggest white elephant going, something as simple as building a train line, (albeit a fancy one) which the Victorians managed to do all over the world, has show this country Is Incapable of suitably building the dramatic Infrastructure needed. The costs alone would have bankrupted a small country.
What happens If It turns out we can't roll out what we need In the limited time we have set ourselves to go carbon netural?

The green measures In London have shown what happens when Ideologists decide that drastic change has to be Implemented rappidly without cause for consideration or common sense. Or Infact concern for those who the Infrastructure Is there for In the first place. There's a fine line between Tom and Barbara Good and ecofascism. We seem so be In the hock of the latter In this country.

And what about China? Unless they agree to the drasistic green measures In cleaning up their ouput It's all fucking pointless. The fact that they were given 10 years longer than the rest to reach the accepted targets sums It all up. When we are all living In the dark we will be relying on them to produce and manufacture what we need to survive. In terms of automobiles It's believed 7% of CO2 worldwide Is produced by vehicles. Take out this countries .03% of that and we are left with fuck all change In terms of noticeable output. Forcing us down a path that others are not yet treading will leave us weaker as a country and reliant on others for our sustainability.

One of the major catalysts of the rise of social freedom, and even social mobility for the average person In the last 70 years has come from their ability to purchase readily available automobiles with little restriction. After all, In theory, I could drive to the most souther part South Africa or China.
What guarantees are there that these new proposals and rules will keep peoples freedoms of choice and travel Intact? Will journeys be state sanctioned? Will they be sanctioned by the global tech companies who will be the ones producing and managing our communal cars lile some are suggesting? After all, Google have been Investing heaheavily In driverless cars and they are not the only ones.

I don't think anyone will disagree that fossil fuels are not the long term answer and we should be looking at ways to Improve the sustainability of our species, but progression for the sake of progression Is not actually progression. It's a warped Ideology that will more than likely result In the regression of society and the freedoms and rights we have had people.
Use a extension lead under the channel and steal it from the frogs.take it as a payment for our fish that the cunts steal
 

kevrelles

Well-known member
Where's all the lithium coming from for these batteries? What about the environment damage mining It will cause? What happens when the life of the battery ends?

Where's all this electric power comming from? As It won't just be cars we'll have to charge, It will be homes we have to power as well. Hydrogen looks a viable solution, but again, how suitable and viable Is It on a mass scale In such a short space of time? We don't have enough sunshine for consistent solar power. Wind turbines are limited. We don't have the vast natural resources to build hydro power dams on the scale required.

How are we going to sustain the haulage Industry? Are will we Import and export goods? After all It will take a whopping battery and a lot of power to sustain an 18 wheeler.

Our public transport system Is just about fit for purpose and Is ridiculously expensive In relative terms as It Is. Who's going to pay for the major upgrades required? Are fares going to go down when the costs are will go drastically up?
HS2 Is the biggest white elephant going, something as simple as building a train line, (albeit a fancy one) which the Victorians managed to do all over the world, has show this country Is Incapable of suitably building the dramatic Infrastructure needed. The costs alone would have bankrupted a small country.
What happens If It turns out we can't roll out what we need In the limited time we have set ourselves to go carbon netural?

The green measures In London have shown what happens when Ideologists decide that drastic change has to be Implemented rappidly without cause for consideration or common sense. Or Infact concern for those who the Infrastructure Is there for In the first place. There's a fine line between Tom and Barbara Good and ecofascism. We seem so be In the hock of the latter In this country.

And what about China? Unless they agree to the drasistic green measures In cleaning up their ouput It's all fucking pointless. The fact that they were given 10 years longer than the rest to reach the accepted targets sums It all up. When we are all living In the dark we will be relying on them to produce and manufacture what we need to survive. In terms of automobiles It's believed 7% of CO2 worldwide Is produced by vehicles. Take out this countries .03% of that and we are left with fuck all change In terms of noticeable output. Forcing us down a path that others are not yet treading will leave us weaker as a country and reliant on others for our sustainability.

One of the major catalysts of the rise of social freedom, and even social mobility for the average person In the last 70 years has come from their ability to purchase readily available automobiles with little restriction. After all, In theory, I could drive to the most souther part South Africa or China.
What guarantees are there that these new proposals and rules will keep peoples freedoms of choice and travel Intact? Will journeys be state sanctioned? Will they be sanctioned by the global tech companies who will be the ones producing and managing our communal cars lile some are suggesting? After all, Google have been Investing heaheavily In driverless cars and they are not the only ones.

I don't think anyone will disagree that fossil fuels are not the long term answer and we should be looking at ways to Improve the sustainability of our species, but progression for the sake of progression Is not actually progression. It's a warped Ideology that will more than likely result In the regression of society and the freedoms and rights we have had people.
Incinerate nonces ,illegals, stoat shaggers,and of course the vermin. That should provide energy in the form of heat
 

Stompie

Well-known member
You don't have to listen to them, but it will happen, same as petrol motors becoming obsolete, move with the times or be left behind.


That was a massive scam/ fuck up but this is a whole new and different thing. We know politicians are useless, in general and fuck up but they do get many things right as well. I take that into account when thinking about these changes, it's not one big scam after another, humans get things wrong, what's new!. The world is changing, we have to change with it, someone has to make these tough and awkward decisions.


diddums :grinning:
You know what I mean.

I did say said we shouldn't resist change for resistance sake. But we shouldn't all hold hands and jump head first Into something that Is far from certain to work out. Especially when the people leading the charge have a history of getting things wrong and stitching us up. Just because someone needs to make these decisions dosen't mean we have to accept the first hasty solution that rears It's head.

I have no problem with cars becoming electric or hydrogen or powered with Fred Flintstone's feet If the run as good as or better than they do now. I'm not a car man or petrol head, so I don't have a vested Intrest. What I am Is suspicious of the speed at which we are being forced down a route with no going back. I don't believe In the feasibility of electric cars and I think that man made climate change has been greatly exaggerated as a means to tax us to the hill and remove many of our freedoms. That Isn't to say I don't care about the environment, I do. But the green blobs marxist, climate change agenda and having care and consideration for the world around you are not mutually exclusive.

I didn't see that episode of Tomorrow's World that Moody did so maybe I'm well of the pace.
 

Moody

Well-known member
You know what I mean.

I did say said we shouldn't resist change for resistance sake. But we shouldn't all hold hands and jump head first Into something that Is far from certain to work out. Especially when the people leading the charge have a history of getting things wrong and stitching us up. Just because someone needs to make these decisions dosen't mean we have to accept the first hasty solution that rears It's head.

I have no problem with cars becoming electric or hydrogen or powered with Fred Flintstone's feet If the run as good as or better than they do now. I'm not a car man or petrol head, so I don't have a vested Intrest. What I am Is suspicious of the speed at which we are being forced down a route with no going back. I don't believe In the feasibility of electric cars and I think that man made climate change has been greatly exaggerated as a means to tax us to the hill and remove many of our freedoms. That Isn't to say I don't care about the environment, I do. But the green blobs marxist, climate change agenda and having care and consideration for the world around you are not mutually exclusive.

I didn't see that episode of Tomorrow's World that Moody did so maybe I'm well of the pace.

A decade these days isn’t hasty.

The combustion engine has hardly changed in 100 years - because the car industry has had no incentive to change.

Now it does and it will. Vauxhall have actually come out and praised this policy publicly, as just one example.

And the fact you think dial up driverless pods via an app on your phone by the 2030s are ‘Tomorrow’s World’, ie a dig, I think does show you off the ‘pace’. I think I keep banging on about this is because a good friend of mine works on driverless car technology and it is coming.

I just believe over the next decade and so by the time the 2030s gets going there will be far less car ownership. But not less freedom of movement. Anyone will be able to call up a driverless pod and travel quickly and far more safely to a destination.

Society is changing massively, the current 20 year old adults have been immersed in technology since birth. By the time my two girls are of working age the idea of having a 9 to 5 job in a building at a desk or having to own an expensive car to drive to said office or to go to ‘the shops’ etc will seem very outdated.

This will greatly aid the switch to non fossil fuel transport, as less actual vehicles will be needed. Like I said, no doubt an algorithm will workout how many pods areas need, where pod hubs need to be etc to create maximum efficiency. Most people’s cars sit idle for 98.5% of the time and get no where near exhausting the range of current electric cars.

I say all this as someone who needs to drive to up to six student’s houses a day, every day in non Covid times. So it’s not as if I am a ‘I am alright Jack’... I need a car. However, I would imagine someone like me (and tradespeople etc) will be able to lease a pod eventually.

Anyway, I do agree with you about being cynical about how governments sometimes handle things. I think they will be completely out of step on this change to electric cars... I think we will waste a lot of money building infrastructure that actually isn’t needed. You and others are worrying about a lack of infrastructure being in place for electric cars... I’m the opposite, I think the government will spend too much money on building infrastructure for say 20 million electric cars, thinking it will be a straight swap between petrol and electric - that pretty quickly won’t be needed, as in fact we will only have 5 million (as an example) driverless electric pods that an algorithm will make sure are charged at their hubs etc... ie they won’t be sitting outside our houses. We will only need recharge areas for those of us that need our pods more often than the average person.
 

Moody

Well-known member
I don't understand why they can't make the cars clockwork like the toy ones but on a larger scale,problem solved :wahey:

I do think that technology around kinetic and heat energy will be the way of the future for powering transport.

Especially now that the car industry have an incentive to invest in this now.
 

Stompie

Well-known member
A decade these days isn’t hasty.

The combustion engine has hardly changed in 100 years - because the car industry has had no incentive to change.

Now it does and it will. Vauxhall have actually come out and praised this policy publicly, as just one example.

And the fact you think dial up driverless pods via an app on your phone by the 2030s are ‘Tomorrow’s World’, ie a dig, I think does show you off the ‘pace’. I think I keep banging on about this is because a good friend of mine works on driverless car technology and it is coming.

I just believe over the next decade and so by the time the 2030s gets going there will be far less car ownership. But not less freedom of movement. Anyone will be able to call up a driverless pod and travel quickly and far more safely to a destination.

Society is changing massively, the current 20 year old adults have been immersed in technology since birth. By the time my two girls are of working age the idea of having a 9 to 5 job in a building at a desk or having to own an expensive car to drive to said office or to go to ‘the shops’ etc will seem very outdated.

This will greatly aid the switch to non fossil fuel transport, as less actual vehicles will be needed. Like I said, no doubt an algorithm will workout how many pods areas need, where pod hubs need to be etc to create maximum efficiency. Most people’s cars sit idle for 98.5% of the time and get no where near exhausting the range of current electric cars.

I say all this as someone who needs to drive to up to six student’s houses a day, every day in non Covid times. So it’s not as if I am a ‘I am alright Jack’... I need a car. However, I would imagine someone like me (and tradespeople etc) will be able to lease a pod eventually.

Anyway, I do agree with you about being cynical about how governments sometimes handle things. I think they will be completely out of step on this change to electric cars... I think we will waste a lot of money building infrastructure that actually isn’t needed. You and others are worrying about a lack of infrastructure being in place for electric cars... I’m the opposite, I think the government will spend too much money on building infrastructure for say 20 million electric cars, thinking it will be a straight swap between petrol and electric - that pretty quickly won’t be needed, as in fact we will only have 5 million (as an example) driverless electric pods that an algorithm will make sure are charged at their hubs etc... ie they won’t be sitting outside our houses. We will only need recharge areas for those of us that need our pods more often than the average person.
Well It's now more like 9 years. And It's not a long time. It's a very short space of time. Especially when you consider the major Infrastructure that will be required to sustain It all.

The longer this decade goes on, the more electric cars will be brought. By about 2027, do you think anyone will be buying new petrol and diesel cars knowing what's comming? I very much doubt It. So within 7/8 years almost all new cars sold will be electric. That Is a drastic amount of new electricity that will have to be produced just to keep cars on the road.

When you consider that Boris Is now set to announce that gas boilers are set to be banned In all new homes In 3 years, there will be an even greater dependency on electricity. We are deciding to drastically Increasing our usage and dependency on It without having the means In place to make sure It Is suitable and sustainable.

Where Is It going to come from? How will we build It on time? How will we pay for It? After all this country Is skint and, If the government keep willingly destroying our economy we will have no chance of ever managing this magic recovery that we will need If we can hope to convince ourselves we can afford It.

This country has a consistent history of not being able to provide grand projects on time or on budget. Why will this change all of a sudden because someone has decided It must happen? What Is It they say, 'The best way to make God laugh Is to tell him your plans'. Well there will be a lot of people laughing all the way to the bank whilst politicians continue to champion themselves via their policies, blissfully Ignoring the vast corouption and Incompetence of our civil sercive and management class.

These are politicians after all, none of those In charge of this have a track record of trust success or even competence. This Is Boris we are talking about. A man not big on details or practice. A man with a small attention span and no substance who storms his way through life making grand statements beneficial to him before moving on, Ignoring the trail he has left In his wake.

I'm not against renewable engery vehicles but It's a completleyrediculous fallacy to force ourselfs down a road that Is not feasible or suitably sustainable and which Is Infact actually harmful In the short to medium term based arrogance of those In charge who dream of a legacy they will leave.

In your plan of all these communal driverless pods, If we are going to have 5 million that will be charged at hubs Instead of outside our houses, where will we find the space for these hubs? That Is an awful lot of land, I would say acres In the millions, that would need to be reclaimed up.and down the country.


And It wasn't a dig. It was a bit of jesting based on the assertion you made which many would find rather far fetched, especially In the time frame you gave.

Regaurdless of the merits or fruition of your belief, you can't expect to keep making assertions about fantastical sounding mass communal robotic transport, on a banter filled Millwall forum, without being harmlessly pulled on It.
 

Moody

Well-known member
Well It's now more like 9 years. And It's not a long time. It's a very short space of time. Especially when you consider the major Infrastructure that will be required to sustain It all.

The longer this decade goes on, the more electric cars will be brought. By about 2027, do you think anyone will be buying new petrol and diesel cars knowing what's comming? I very much doubt It. So within 7/8 years almost all new cars sold will be electric. That Is a drastic amount of new electricity that will have to be produced just to keep cars on the road.

When you consider that Boris Is now set to announce that gas boilers are set to be banned In all new homes In 3 years, there will be an even greater dependency on electricity. We are deciding to drastically Increasing our usage and dependency on It without having the means In place to make sure It Is suitable and sustainable.

Where Is It going to come from? How will we build It on time? How will we pay for It? After all this country Is skint and, If the government keep willingly destroying our economy we will have no chance of ever managing this magic recovery that we will need If we can hope to convince ourselves we can afford It.

This country has a consistent history of not being able to provide grand projects on time or on budget. Why will this change all of a sudden because someone has decided It must happen? What Is It they say, 'The best way to make God laugh Is to tell him your plans'. Well there will be a lot of people laughing all the way to the bank whilst politicians continue to champion themselves via their policies, blissfully Ignoring the vast corouption and Incompetence of our civil sercive and management class.

These are politicians after all, none of those In charge of this have a track record of trust success or even competence. This Is Boris we are talking about. A man not big on details or practice. A man with a small attention span and no substance who storms his way through life making grand statements beneficial to him before moving on, Ignoring the trail he has left In his wake.

I'm not against renewable engery vehicles but It's a completleyrediculous fallacy to force ourselfs down a road that Is not feasible or suitably sustainable and which Is Infact actually harmful In the short to medium term based arrogance of those In charge who dream of a legacy they will leave.

In your plan of all these communal driverless pods, If we are going to have 5 million that will be charged at hubs Instead of outside our houses, where will we find the space for these hubs? That Is an awful lot of land, I would say acres In the millions, that would need to be reclaimed up.and down the country.


And It wasn't a dig. It was a bit of jesting based on the assertion you made which many would find rather far fetched, especially In the time frame you gave.

Regaurdless of the merits or fruition of your belief, you can't expect to keep making assertions about fantastical sounding mass communal robotic transport, on a banter filled Millwall forum, without being harmlessly pulled on It.

Oh, I know that re discussing futuristic ideas on a Millwall forum.

But to be fair, I have always said ‘I just think’, not that I know... However, I honestly don’t think driverless cars being called up on an app by the time my girls are of working age (2032) is that far fetched. The technology is already in place.

I would imagine hubs would be things like converted car parks, service stations and even converted lanes on motorways - as you no longer need them with an integrated driverless system.

BTW I am not saying we would jump straight to the pod thing, I just believe that’s the direction transport will take.

I imagine that the target of 2030 is just to get car companies off their arses, as all they’ve done for the last 50 years is make little modifications.

On that, I actually don’t think electric will be the main way we get transport moving. I think technology around kinetic and heat energy will be developed... with a smaller amount of electrical charge needed to get the vehicle moving, but not powering it for the majority of the journey.

I actually think this move to renewable energy etc will see the creation of jobs and a growth in the economy, rather than doom and gloom. But that’s me, I work with kids that have cancer and other medical issues, I guess I have to be an optimist!
 

Moody

Well-known member
One thing I will say... the anti nuclear mob in the 1980s did more than most to keep us hooked up on dirty fossil fuels than anybody. Completely misguided do-gooddry!

Anyway, you’d like to think that they will now go full steam ahead with wind and wave power... we have plenty enough to power the country alongside nuclear power stations. Although I will bow to superior knowledge on that...
 

ParisWall

Well-known member
Well the latest masterstroke from Boris the buffoon, or should that read his bint who is pulling the strings at the moment, is nine years time and no more petrol and diesel cars! Nine years will be gone before you know it! As someone who works in the parts supply side of car repairs this is a worry to me. The only profit of any significance we make is from service work which will disappear. My advice would be to hang on to your current motor for a while and then buy the best petrol engine car you can in 2029. They really are doing their best not to be re-elected at the next GE.
I don't things will change overnight to affect spare parts business, mate.

I've a mate who owns an N Reg MGB Roadster from the mid Seventies - it's one of the last of the Chrome Bumper models.

He uses several companies for parts, trim, paint etc. I don't think he's ever been stuck - he seems to get his hands on anything and everything.

He reckons most of the companies bought tooling and pressing machines from British Leyland and can produce just about anything to Factory Spec!

So, looking ahead forty-odd years, I assume the same will apply to today's Renaults, Audis, BMWs and Peugeots.